For the time being, Scotiabank has shut the door—and double-bolted it—on discretionary broker-channel rate discounts.

Brokers are stuck quoting off Scotia's rate sheet, and any sweeter deal comes straight out of their own commission cheques via buydown.

But that's just the half of it.

On top of the freeze on discretionary pricing, brokers see Scotia’s retail reps quoting numbers well under what the broker channel is allowed to offer.

We just saw one three-year fixed quote come in 29 bps lower, for example.

"Max buydowns don't even get you close to branch discretionary rates," one broker told MLN.

In fact, complaints about Scotia’s recent pricing are piling up from brokers, and that naturally raises two questions:

1. Why is Scotia operating with policies that foster discontent?
2. What should brokers do about it?

We spoke with a range of opinionated sources to understand both sides of this dilemma. It turns out, it's an issue that requires perspective.

If you rely on Scotia as a broker, here's what you have to know.

The first data casualty of the U.S. government shutdown is confirmed. The Labor Department announced it was cancelling the October jobs report.

Bond markets didn't like what they heard.

As you might have recently read, Scotiabank is calling for a rate hike in the back half of next year.

It's a spirited call, albeit a shot-in-the-dark one, given so many things could radically alter the BoC's path in 2026, including:

1. Article 34.6 — which effectively lets the U.S. pull out of CUSMA
   (an outside chance of a devastating blow to Canadian GDP)
2. The U.S. Supreme Court — which could rein in Trump's discretionary tariffs
   (that could, ironically, raise the odds of #1 above)
3. AI investment, fiscal spending, near-zero population growth, and geopolitical risk — all of which present a scatterplot of possible rate outcomes

At this point, it’s hard to treat any economist’s 12-month forecast as more than a rough sketch.

We're generally better off:

(A) leaning on the forward curve, where traders stake billions on future rate direction daily, and

(B) remembering one simple adage: Markets price efficiently. Lenders do not.

Canadian markets sighed with the passing of the federal budget. Now, perhaps PM Carney can turn more attention to housing markets, where starts came up way short.

It seems there's a growing crowd waiting for the trap door to fall out in Canadian real estate.

October defied those expectations, however, with benchmark prices edging 0.2% higher after falling in 8 of 9 previous months. It came on a 0.9% m/m bounce in sales, says CREA (with all data seasonally adjusted).

Canada’s CPI stole the spotlight Monday. It landed a tad warm, further suggesting that a BoC rate cut next month is off the table.

Markets are now bracing for a wave of post-shutdown U.S. data. With any luck, the job reports this week won't trigger any bond market meltdowns.

Headline inflation came in a shade above Bay Street's collective guesstimate for October, but it's still a welcome step down.

More importantly, the BoC's so-called "preferred indicator," average core inflation, is back below 3%, shaving off 15 bps from September.
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Breaking it down

Yields closed in the green on Friday as hopes for a December Fed rate cut continue to dim.

On this side of the border, markets are nervously awaiting today's CPI data, looking for proof that average core inflation still understands the concept of "down."