MLN NewsStream

"If pushed, our response will be the single largest trade blow the U.S. economy has ever endured." —Transport and Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand on Question Period

Like a ticking economic time bomb, we're potentially mere hours from Tariff-ageddon. If Trump stays true to his promise and taxes our imports right after his inauguration, Canada's employment, GDP and inflation charts could take some sharp, unpleasant turns.

For borrowers, mortgage pros and investors, one way to monitor the rate effects of Trump's tariff tyranny is to watch bond yields. They'll provide the most immediate sense of near-term rate direction as trade news leaks out of Washington this week.
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Last June, nesto decided to splash some serious cash on acquiring CMLS, a mortgage finance company. With a nine-figure investment on the line, nesto's backers are eager to see its returns sprout faster than a chia pet on Miracle-Gro.

To crank up the volume for 2025, CMLS is going all out with moves like:

• lowering the bar to qualify for broker bonuses
• going on a hiring spree to improve service
• launching an alternative mortgage that's as versatile as they come.

Net-net, there's plenty to applaud. For those in the business, read on for an unvarnished take on how brokers benefit.

"Pricing exceptions on every file are ridiculous. Special pricing has gotten out of control."

That's what one of Canada's most successful mortgage brokers told us today.

Big banks are the apex predators in Canada's mortgage jungle. They sit atop the food chain with the reach and funding to overpower smaller species. At yesterday's RBC Capital Markets Bank CEO Conference, these financial carnivores roared their intentions, some foreshadowing aggressive pricing strategies to amass market share.

Mainstream media covered RBC's event from its usual 30,000-foot perspective, but in this report, we'll dive deeper. We'll explore what matters most to smaller lenders and brokers, the tenacious underdogs of this ecosystem.

We'll also examine the fresh mortgage insights shared yesterday by OSFI chief Peter Routledge — because, in finance, nothing says 'intrigue' like regulatory updates.

Understanding interest rate behaviour across multiple cycles is crucial to making savvier term decisions. They may not be foolproof, but historical rate patterns yield vital insights—much like relying on a GPS that occasionally thinks you're driving through a cornfield.

At a minimum, history provides a sense of how long rate cycles last and what drives them, and that's essential knowledge for any mortgage professional.

With that in mind, this report takes a new look at what we can glean from the past.