MLN NewsStream

StatsCan pulled another CPI rabbit out of its hat on Tuesday. For the first time since February 2021, inflation dipped below its 10-year average.

July headline CPI simmered down to a lukewarm 2.5% y/y pace, practically rolling out the red carpet for a 1/4-point Bank of Canada rate cut two weeks from now.
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The BoC's favourite average core measure dropped to 2.55%, a touch better than expected. That means the Bank's crystal ball gazing was on point with its 2.5% Q3 average core estimate.

In other words, disinflation’s hitting its targets like a pro golfer on the back nine.

"The secret of business is to know something that nobody else knows." - Aristotle Onassis

Mortgage pros who subscribe to MortgageLogic.news understand the power of mortgage market intelligence full well. They also understand that knowledge is only power when it's applied. The world compensates action, not intellect.

For that reason, it's important to us that all of our amazing members know how to convert MLN's data power into results. After all, accumulating smarts without monetizing them is like buying a treadmill and using it as a clothes rack.

That's why, in the story that follows, you'll find a dozen ways to leverage MLN's bulletins and tools to close more business. So, let’s get to it with idea number one...

#1 - Send clients or referral sources value-added mortgage updates

• When it comes to attracting new business, step #1 is being unforgettable. That's why it pains us to see brokers send inane CRM emails. Fluff like '10 Ways to Clean Your Barbeque' or 'The Fascinating World of Doorknobs' may appeal to a minority, but value-added updates that impact one's bank account appeal to the majority.
• MLN Pro members can dazzle their VIPs by creatively repurposing insights from these three sources:
  • Mortgage Memos—hot off the press at 9:30 a.m. ET, every business day, they're a go-to source for keeping pace with market-shifting economic events.
  • Weekly bulletins—dispatched four times a week, they're often loaded with borrower-friendly insights into Bank of Canada policy shifts, new mortgage products, major rate promos, significant trend changes to the rate outlook, regulatory updates that affect consumers or brokers, interest-saving tactics, real estate investing ideas, and so on.
  • The Mortgage Command Centre (MCC)—updated daily, the MCC keeps tabs on vital economic indicators for both Canada and the U.S. (overlooking American rate trends in mortgage analysis is like using last year’s weather report). Members are encouraged to scan the MCC regularly to stay on top of evolving economic shifts.
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#2 - Send clients or referral sources key rate changes

• Monitor the Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey (updated each business day) to brief folks on notable changes to:
  • Industry average rates
  • Big 6 bank rates
  • The lowest rates (this one's purely optional, as not everyone wants to compete with rate discounters).
• Illustrate how your rates stack up against MLN's objective benchmarks, namely:
  • the lowest advertised Big Bank rates, and
  • industry average rates.
    
    Most of these rates are as beatable as a blindfolded goaltender, making them well suited to marketing.
• Dollarize the cost difference between your rates and MLN’s benchmarks for the borrower's chosen term(s). Then, quantify the additional value of the strategy and product benefits you're proposing to the client.
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#3 - Use the Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey to optimize your rates

• If you advertise rates, there's a good chance customers will judge you by those rates.
• In this market, rate-focused mortgage brokers are either sharks or shark bait. So, if you actively promote your rates online, make sure they're at least keeping up with the Joneses (+/- 5 or 10 bps). Stay vigilant with daily checks of the Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey.
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#4 - Leverage the Amortization Simulator

• Picking the correct mortgage term is about facts, not a gut feeling.
• MLN's Amortization Simulator supports data-based decision-making. It quantifies potential outcomes based on current rates and objective market-implied rate outlooks. (Instructions)
• MLN frequently updates its commentary based on internal Amortization Simulations, alerting you to changes in the most cost-effective projected terms. That helps originators avoid recommending yesterday's mortgage terms (those that no longer model out well). Sometimes, the projected borrowing cost of the best value mortgage changes by thousands of dollars overnight.
• Once you've updated the Amortization Simulator with your available rates and assumptions, you can show clients hypothetical best-case, base-case and adverse-case scenarios for the terms they're interested in.
• For added impact, screen share this analysis and watch people’s jaws drop at your analytical ability. It’s like watching The Matrix, but with less leather and more loans.
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#5 - Harness customer engagement strategies

• MLN puts out an array of marketing tactics each year. Over the past 12 months, we've tackled everything from dodging the AI search apocalypse to engaging with personalized videos to leveraging high-TDS income property financing to drafting clickworthy mortgage content. Implementing just one tactic well could land you more deals than a politician at a lobbyist convention.
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#6 - Learn new strategies

• MLN publishes dozens of bulletins each year on fresh ways to minimize interest or arrange financing. Examples include term analysis based on historical backtesting, down payment 'tricks,' and ideas to tame debt ratios. Often, whole new marketing campaigns can be built around these strategies.
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#7 - Update stakeholders on market expectations

• Folks crave forecasts, but predicting the future isn't easy. Almost no one outpredicts the market, at least not consistently year in and year out.
• The Mortgage Command Centre (MCC) dishes out daily updates on market rate expectations (see below). Sprinkle its graphs into your emails, newsletters, and secure client websites, and suddenly, you're not just a mortgage originator; you're a financial fortune-teller. Just don't promise anyone the winning lottery numbers—and use lots of disclaimers.
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#8 - Use MLN market data to estimate discounting trends

• MLN’s spread tracker is a handy tool. When spreads are 30-40 bps above their regression line and start turning down from a peak, it usually means better discounts are ahead—and vice versa.
• Use the MCC’s daily market data updates to warn of potential impending rate moves, which can help if you're trying to get a client off the fence to apply or secure a rate hold.
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#9 - Use MLN's AI chart generator

• Use the Mortgage Command Centre to craft custom charts using dozens of economic data points.
• Feature these visual masterpieces in your client or referral source communications, in an occasional blog or on virtually any customer website behind a login.
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#10 - Run your own analysis

• Want to see how an economic variable affects mortgage rates or home values? You can do it simply by downloading MCC data into Excel and running a regression.
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#11 - Competitive intelligence

• Apart from rate analysis, if there's one thing MLN tries to excel at, it's highlighting winning and losing mortgage business practices. Whether you're a broker or a lender, knowing what your competition or regulators are up to helps you adapt quicker and avoid lost revenue. And "quick" is the name of the game. As the AI era evolves, online advice, content generation, pay-per-click marketing, SEO, documentation processes and rate shopping will all transform. Originators will need to adapt faster than a chameleon on a disco floor, and we'll be there to report on what's changing.
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#12 - Talk to Rob

• That's me. Some think that because of my media involvement or this or that, I don't have time for chit-chat. But I'm never too busy to talk to MLN members. I do lots of consulting, but members don't have to pay to run a quick idea by me. If I can contribute an iota of feedback that helps them be more profitable, that's what jazzes up my day—that, and a Detroit Lions touchdown. So, if you've got a new website, mortgage model, mortgage product, or marketing campaign that you want a confidential professional opinion on, drop a line anytime at robert@mclister.com.

Profitable mortgage brokers who want to scale their business run into the same obstacle over and over. New agents they hire can't replicate how the broker-owner interacts with customers.

That's a worry if you're a consummate pro. Your business wouldn't be successful if it weren't for how you treat mortgage leads and clients. When bringing in new troops to boost volumes, ensuring those agents aren't driving clients away takes tremendous effort.

After decades in the trenches with my better half, Melanie, people sometimes ask what we would have done differently in our brokerage odyssey. Apart from writing less and focusing on operations more (you can't have distractions when you're trying to build an empire), there were things I would have done differently.

For example, in the twilight of our expansion, we hired numerous agents. Most of them were stand-up professionals who bent over backwards for clients. Yet, a few were just train wrecks, with client interactions that sometimes bordered on horrifying.

We learned there is one sure way to tell if an agent is a dud—or simply needs more sales training:

So far so good with the rate cut cycle. Everything's been going mostly according to plan after May (which usually indicates we're due for something unplanned).

Camerican price levels are slowly but surely disinflating, the labour market is easing, and Wall Street / Bay Street projects that GDP will dive in the back half of this year.

As usual, fortune-telling investors are pricing all this in well in advance. The more traders get confident that rate cuts will continue, the more the fixed-rate leading 4-year swap rate will inch towards the 2% range.