What if everything borrowers thought they knew about rates in 2025 was wrong?

That's what one of our favourite macro analysts, RBC's Frances Donald, posed in her Bloomberg appearance on Monday. She noted, "We're really starting to actively think about, is there a scenario that leads to [Fed] hikes in 2025?"

Hold up—did someone just say hikes?

Indeed, and Ms. Donald made that comment before the stagflationary risk of Trump's coercive tariffs made headlines on Tuesday. Is it just us, or is 2025 starting to feel like an interest-rate movie dreamt up by M. Night Shyamalan?

On November 1, Canada's banking watchdog unleashed its loan-to-income (LTI) limits on Canada's biggest banks. Curious about how things were progressing, we asked a Big 6 bank executive for his unvarnished take on how LTI is affecting the mortgage market.

One key takeaway: mortgages could become more of a game of chance, at least for some borrowers. And no doubt, many of those applicants won't be thrilled with the outcome.

If federal mortgage announcements leave your head spinning due to ambiguities and omissions, you're not alone. It's a wild dream, but maybe one day, regulators will let mortgage practitioners proofread their communications in advance. Then, edits can be made and mortgage pros will get all the key details they need on the day of the announcement.

We spoke with multiple lenders on Friday, and none of them felt overly confident about some of the finer points of OSFI's policy shift. When the lenders themselves are confused, you know we're in for a ride.

On that note, we got more clarifications from the banking regulator and lenders on the new uninsured switch change. Here's the latest...

Canada's bank regulator officially announced the removal of the federal mortgage stress test for borrowers switching from one lender to another, but oh, mama, the devil's in the details!

OSFI says everything's a go for tomorrow's stress test policy change. The banking regulator confirms that "November 21 is the date that banks can begin accepting straight switches without performing the mortgage stress test."

It's a move that should incrementally boost origination volumes industrywide as more borrowers are able to switch lenders. However, due to system issues, internal policy and other factors, not all lenders will be on board on day one.

The most aggressive competitors will naturally see the greatest uptick in switch volumes. But overall, this won't move the needle much since most retention departments have a knack for keeping renewers loyal. Moreover, only a small minority of would-be switchers were blocked by the stress test to begin with. For mortgage originators, however, every new deal helps.

What's more intriguing is a potential shift to #insurable# policy, and we've got an update on that.