Just as traders were getting cozy with the idea of Fed cuts, along comes a wicked curveball.

On Thursday, it was U.S. PPI, which detonated the biggest blowout (forecast overshoot) in years.

The Bank of Canada kicked the tires on a 25-bp cut last month but deferred it, hinting they’ll only ease if underlying inflation stops acting so spicy.

For mortgage shoppers, that and a nickel still buys a nickel — nothing our readers didn't already know. The Bank is still waiting for a clearer pile of data to push it off the fence, one way or another.

Bond investors feared that U.S. inflation would land hotter than expected on Tuesday. It did make some noise (more on that), but not enough to convince traders the Fed won't cut in September.

For the crew at the BoC, Canadian inflation is always paramount. U.S. CPI plays second fiddle, but with its 0.82 correlation to Canadian CPI since 1991, America's bearing on Canadian price levels is undeniable.

That's why today's acceleration in U.S. core inflation feels a bit unerving, kinda like finding out your “quiet” neighbour is hoarding fireworks.

With Monday’s economic calendar offering all the excitement of an unplugged slot machine—and U.S. CPI incoming—yields chose not to commit one way or another.

After Friday's letdown on employment, the 5-year yield's 2 bps dip felt like a shrug.

Looking ahead to this week, Canadian economic data is sparse. That means the next five days should see our rates marching to the beat of whatever tune the U.S. and global markets decide to play.

Interviews sans fluff. That's the mantra around here, and MLN’s debut of Stress Test This aims to deliver just that. It’s a tight 9-minute format designed to load up on insight before attention spans start checking the clock.

Episode #1 spotlights the entrepreneur who took modern retail, fused it with mortgage brokering and then scaled it to a $4+ billion business. He then trailblazed the broker-owned lender concept, became a digital marketing authority (seemingly overnight), and built what many would call Canada’s most formidable independent broker brand.

This describes none other than True North Mortgage Founder Dan Eisner—a man who treats mortgage business strategy like some people treat chess: three moves ahead, and never by accident.

Once again, Canada's wheel of employment treated Bay Street estimates like satire. And this time, the Labour Force Survey surprise was on the downside.

Here was the damage:

• Estimated job change: -40,800 (est. +13,500 | prior 83,100)
• Unemployment rate: 6.9% (est. 7.0% | prior 6.9%)
• Average hourly wages: +3.3% (prior 3.2%)
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Bay Street buzz: