Most lenders are still showing patience with fixed rates. So far, just 7 of 30 national lenders have boosted mortgage pricing following the recent yield spike.

That said, with swap spreads at a 14-month low—and 20 bps below the five-year average—that patience will wear thin if yields continue higher.

Lenders hoping to escape further spread compression watched bonds guided by soft data and political drama on Wednesday.

Tuesday's lively underlying inflation readings launched yields to levels they haven't seen in six months. Not only did that send economists scrambling to delay their rate‑cut calls (again), it also had many lenders rushing to tweak rate sheets.

Much like the broader economy, real estate's mostly drifting, looking for directional inspiration. June CREA data confirms the market is stuck in an arm wrestle between positive and negative forces. We'll dissect those details shortly, but first, here were the highlights:

Fresh inflation prints just landed on both sides of the border, and judging by the data, tariff-flation is a thing. It's not a five-alarm fire—yet—but it’s enough to keep central bankers frozen like they’re watching a teleprompter glitch.

As mortgage pros, we have to prepare clients for the possibility that this freeze may not thaw for months. More on that below.

Let's start with the June numbers:

The CRA has shared highlights from its industry consultation on the government's new Income Verification Tool.

It promises to use the broker and lender feedback it received to "inform" its design of the tool, citing two stats as reasons to complete this project:

1. Mortgage Professionals Canada warns that “for every $1 lost to fraud it takes $4 for lenders to recoup.”
2. "The foreclosure process on a property where the borrower is unable to make their payments can take up to a year, and cost approximately 20% to 30% of the property’s value," it says.

The agency declined to ballpark when the tool might come to fruition—classic government strategy: if you don’t give a timeline, you can’t miss it.

Findings from the report

International markets inflated Canadian bond yields on Monday, and the trend heading into Tuesday's CPI remains up.

Meanwhile, with yields making new medium-term highs on Monday, multiple lenders announced fixed-rate hikes.

Macro bulls got some revenge Friday, a headline jobs number worth printing on a T-shirt. And, no matter how the deniers spin it, this report was a market sentiment shifter.

There are surprises, and then there are data releases that slap economists harder than a red wine hangover. This was the latter.