Once again, Canada's wheel of employment treated Bay Street estimates like satire. And this time, the Labour Force Survey surprise was on the downside.

Here was the damage:

• Estimated job change: -40,800 (est. +13,500 | prior 83,100)
• Unemployment rate: 6.9% (est. 7.0% | prior 6.9%)
• Average hourly wages: +3.3% (prior 3.2%)
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Bay Street buzz:

Bond yields hit the snooze button on Thursday, but the action should heat up at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. That’s when the curtain rises on Canada’s monthly labour theatre.

Traders are bracing for gloom in the data: weaker hiring, higher jobless rates. We'll see if StatCan throws Bay Street another curveball.

While we wait for the employment drama, here’s the direction in which yields moved on Thursday, and a whole stack of other updates.

This is a question that virtually every mortgage lender wants to know, but none of them really do.

The reason that no lender truly knows is threefold:

1. There are few public sources of these data
2. The stats that exist conflict, and
3. Private lender data isn't widely shared.

The two most prominent sources of mortgage broker market share are Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC) and CMHC. Here's what each side claims, and why they still leave us one bulb short of clarity.

With an economic calendar devoid of action, our five-year yield rose by a single lonely basis point, mostly out of boredom. But that alone is notable for one simple reason. Friday's flaming dumpster of a U.S. jobs report is getting no follow-through to the downside. Yields are holding up okay—so far.

Apart from a few minor Canadian trade headlines, Tuesday was pretty much an All-American show on the macro stage. The latest economic setlist now features an awkward medley of slowing growth and sticky inflation—sounds like a stagflation remix.

Here’s a full breakdown on that, and a look at how the latest news moved yields:

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America’s payrolls report just hosted a surprise seminar for macro analysts called “How to Faceplant in Public Forecasting.” Few saw this job grenade coming.

The miserably weak numbers—289,000 fewer jobs than expected, including revisions—sucker-punched bond bears and sent U.S. yields plummeting. Here's how the dreary data have rewritten the next chapter for mortgage rates.

A flurry of headlines jostled Canadian yields on Thursday, but the biggest news came after the market's close. Trump signed an order lifting his seat-of-the-pants tariff on Canadian imports from 25% to 35% (CUSMA goods are still exempted).

The President again pinned heavy fentanyl blame on Canada. That's despite overwhelming data that we're not the real problem. Apparently, data counts as fake news if it's inconvenient.

Trump also pointed fingers at Canada’s tariff retaliation, as if we were the ones who threw the first snowball.

Reuters reports that PM Carney tried to reach the President, but had no luck. Carney wrote on X that he was disappointed with the Donald. On the bright side, he noted that our CUSMA exception gives Canada "one of the lowest" effective tariff rates around.

That, of course, raises the multi-billion-dollar question: what fresh hell awaits when CUSMA expires next June?