MLN NewsStream

If we had a chart of the week, it would be this one.

Citigroup's U.S. economic surprise index (chart above) has turned negative for the first time in well over a year. A reading below zero means the U.S. economy is in worse shape than expected. Surprise index readings start falling fast when America's economy declines, and the last few weeks have seen a steep drop.

For Canadians eyeing mortgage rates, this matters—because when Uncle Sam sneezes, we reach for the tissues. Some like to think we control our own destiny north of the 49th. But the truth is, the overstimulated U.S. economy must decelerate to give Canadians a fighting chance at 3-handle mortgage rates.

Last month, the government excitedly announced it was jacking up the RRSP Home Buyers' Plan (HBP) withdrawal limit from $35,000 to a roomier $60,000.

That made us and many others wonder: who's actually benefiting from this $25,000 higher limit?

MLN pinged the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) for some hard numbers. Here's what they told us.

It's an all-out war on Canadian property investors. Governments and self-proclaimed "experts" are treating investors like they're the reason your kid can't afford a treehouse in Toronto, let alone a condo.

Investors are convenient villains, pilloried for driving up prices and scapegoated for housing and immigration policy failings.

Here's just a taste of the anti-investor sentiment in Canada and the damaging repercussions of federal and provincial governments' short-sighted crusade.

Friday's U.S. jobs report came in so tame it could've been a house pet. Rate markets cheered, BoC rate cut chances improved, and MLN's go-to fixed-rate indicator, the 4-year swap rate, dove 9 bps.

Most North American yields now sit near critical technical support levels after last week's rate surge turned out to be all bark, no bite.

It's increasingly looking like Canada's first rate cut is teed up for June 5 or July 24. But borrowers would be a lot more confident of that if it weren't for the U.S. timetable being pushed back.

Based on the latest Fed powwow on Wednesday, the key stars-and-stripes interest rate is likely to remain at its 23-year peak of 5.50%—at least through the summer.

On a positive note, the Fed did reassure us that further U.S. rate hikes are off the table for now. Despite bubbly growth, employment and inflation south of the border, Fed Chair Powell chose to relieve markets with a dovish spiel—one that can be summarized in these two quotes: