MLN NewsStream

Aside from CPI, employment data are typically the biggest routine driver of mortgage rates. And on Friday, StatsCan dealt borrowers a good hand on job numbers, at least from a rate perspective.

For the full rundown, skim through MLN's latest Mortgage Memo. To summarize, unemployment accelerated to a multi-year high of 6.4%, and job creation took another nap, with an estimated 1,400 jobs slipping away in June.

Rebecca Oakes, VP of Advanced Analytics at Equifax Canada, is a data maven. She deciphers credit trends like Doyle Brunson deciphered tells at a poker table. We caught up with her last week for a helping of mortgage insights. Here's what she served up...

In 30 days, the government launches its latest housing hail mary: 30-year amortizations for default-insured first-time buyers.

Many questions surround the policy, not the least of which is: Will the scheme actually accomplish its missions?

It aims to light a fire under new construction and make homebuying more "affordable." But key hurdles make its outcome as predictable as a Newfoundland winter.

Canadians shouldn't “spend a lot of time thinking about the neutral rate,” BoC chief Tiff Macklem advised in his June 5 press conference.

But it's okay for him to spend a lot of time thinking about it.

In the Bank's own words, the neutral rate is:

• "An anchor" rate that's “an important input for its economic projections.”
• “Used to gauge the stance of monetary policy.”
• An ongoing topic in BoC press conferences, speeches, annual assessments, working papers, interviews, parliamentary testimony, and so on.

In other words, it's important.

In fact, it's so crucial that the BoC estimates it regularly, publishes those estimates for all to see, comments on it in every Monetary Policy Report, and uses those estimates as a core reference rate for its rate modelling.

When rates go bonkers - sky-high or rock-bottom - the neutral rate becomes the North Star for navigating back to normalcy. It's essentially the BoC's GPS after a wild rate cycle.

But Canadians shouldn't worry their pretty little heads over it. Just trust the experts, they suggest.

If you're a builder who wants to get your phones ringing, try this trick: flaunt a mortgage rate beginning with '2'.

And then brace for the hefty buydown.

For brokers or retail mortgage reps, this strategy typically isn't possible. For developers clearing tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars per unit, however, it is.

And this is precisely what more builders across the country are doing this very minute. We profiled one of them, VLS Developments, to find out what's behind its offer.