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Duty-free cross-border trade now rests in the same grave as common sense. In a fit of diplomatic dementia, Trump is slapping wildly disproportionate, self-sabotaging, bullying import taxes on Canada, its most loyal ally and the biggest buyer of its goods.

"There is no justification whatsoever for these tariffs or this treatment," Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said today in a rebuke of the U.S. administration.

"It defies economic logic," added former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. "Just about all economists agree" these tariffs are a mistake, and "it takes a lot to unite the economics profession," he told CNN.

That's why so many expected, and still expect, this to be a gambit by the White House. However, we may be wrong to assume that rationality resonates with a man who treats international policy like his second divorce settlement.

While the repercussions reach well beyond real estate finance, we'll leave those discussions for others. Here, we'll unpack how this misguided trade policy could ripple through Canada's mortgage and real estate markets.
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At Wednesday's press conference, a reporter asked BoC Chief Tiff Macklem what he'll be doing on Saturday morning, when Trump is expected to hit us with tariffs. Rest assured, he won’t be binge-watching Looney Tunes.

Nope. Instead, he'll be "watching the news," he said, pondering how inflation would react to a U.S.-instigated trade scuffle. And so far, he's not sure.

The BoC admits that even its crack team of model-tweaking PhDs can't predict how inflation will pan out in a 25% tariff situation. For Joe and Jane Mortgagor, what chance do they have to get the rate outlook right: 50/50 if they guess?

All this uncertainty makes mortgage term selection like picking a favourite child—tricky, but not impossible.

VC-backed online mortgage provider, Pine, is piloting a new offering from Zown that boosts buyers' down payments and gives them extra cash for closing costs.

The program uses a well-worn strategy to put money in the buyer's pocket, but it has a few twists. Today, we examine whether the program is just marketing razzle-dazzle or a genuine boon for homebuyers.

Talk about ironic timing.

Mortgage shoppers have stampeded toward variable mortgages lately. Yet, large prime rate discounts are disappearing faster than hors d'oeuvres at a banking conference.

In the last week alone, the average floating-rate spread below prime has shrunk by 5 bps (source: Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey). Signs point to further discount erosion ahead.

What's happening

"If pushed, our response will be the single largest trade blow the U.S. economy has ever endured." —Transport and Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand on Question Period

Like a ticking economic time bomb, we're potentially mere hours from Tariff-ageddon. If Trump stays true to his promise and taxes our imports right after his inauguration, Canada's employment, GDP and inflation charts could take some sharp, unpleasant turns.

For borrowers, mortgage pros and investors, one way to monitor the rate effects of Trump's tariff tyranny is to watch bond yields. They'll provide the most immediate sense of near-term rate direction as trade news leaks out of Washington this week.
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