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"The Fed pivot in December has triggered an easing in financial conditions which can no longer be ignored," says private equity giant Apollo Global Management. As a result, the firm sees no Fed rate cuts this year.

It's a minority view, but Apollo's not alone. More contrarians have come out of the woodwork, maintaining that rates are renormalizing around today's higher levels. They're flagging everything from fiscal over-stimulation, housing strength, surging population (in Canada, not so much in the U.S.), rate insensitivity in the U.S. (due to 30-year mortgages), sticky inflation expectations, wage pressures, trade frictions, and onshoring—all of which are conspiring to slow disinflation.

The OIS and forward markets—which analysts turn to for rate predictions—are scratching their heads at this unprecedented combination of inflationary forces. There's a nagging concern that markets are not recognizing the inflation beast in the lineup.

If the consensus turns out to be wrong about monetary easing in 2024, it could rewrite the future for people's net worth. Rates are a crucial lever for home values, and home ownership is people's primary method of building wealth.

One can't help but ponder: if 5% mortgage rates theoretically became the new normal, could home prices keep reaching for the stars?

Online mortgage marketers have a big problem. It starts with "Goo" and ends with "gle."

Markets are betting on 2024 rate cuts like they've got insider information.

But overconfidence in a position can bite one in the posterior. Mortgage shoppers should all be asking the same question: What could go wrong?

One thing that could go wrong is inflation snubbing the Bank of Canada's 2.4% year-end forecast.

If y/y CPI hovers in the high 2s or treacherous 3s this year, the probability of sustained rate cuts plummets.

But what could cause such a letdown?

And for the mortgage crowd, what's plan B if rate relief in 2024 doesn't pan out?

After CMHC unceremoniously dumped its First Time Home Buyer Incentive, the future of shared equity down payments came into question. But Ourboro wants people to know that this strategy is very much alive.

The shared equity provider just expanded into Ottawa from its present service areas: the GTA (all seven regions of TRREB), Kitchener/Waterloo, Guelph, Hamilton, and London. We're told that other provinces could come within 12-18 months.

The company says it has now closed 100 shared equity deals (worth $80 million). That may not sound like much, but Chief Product Officer Alex Kjorven dubs it "a phenomenal milestone from a proof of concept perspective."

Friday's job numbers came rolling in like a pair of dice, and thankfully, the bond market didn't crap out. This month's employment double header showed some sparks, but yields fell nonetheless.

The breakdown

In Canada: +40,700 jobs (vs +20,000 consensus); unemployment rose to 5.8% (vs 5.8% consensus); average hourly wages rose 5.0% (vs 5.3% last month).

In the U.S.: +275,000 jobs (vs +200,000 consensus); unemployment climbed to 3.9% (vs 3.7% consensus); average hourly earnings slowed to 4.3% (vs 4.4% last month).

The takeaway