CMHC has massively undercut private default insurers on 30-year insured amortizations.

Effective August 1, Canada's housing agency will be charging just 20 bps extra for insured first-time buyers who want a 30-year am. That's dialling all the way back to what CMHC charged in 2012, the last time it offered insured 30-year amortizations on residential loans.

Canadian borrowers will be toasting the BoC from coast to coast, having waited for this day since the first hike 27 months ago.

Odds are, today's 25 bps cut is just the appetizer. The Bank expects it to start a string of easing—one that markets anticipate will last about 200 bps.

Even though some naysayers called recent economic data "inconclusive," BoC chief Tiff Macklem couldn't ignore the red warning lights on his economic dashboard, nor (at least subconsciously) public cries for rate relief. Ultimately, the Bank trimmed rates to dodge an even bigger economic iceberg that's already on the horizon.

Even as the target rate dips to 4.75%, the shackles are by no means off. Rates are still tightly restrictive. Canada's policy rate remains 200 bps above average core inflation. The 20-year average is 45 bps below inflation, almost two and a half points lower.

Where we go from here

Fourteen years after redefining mortgage rate comparison, Toronto-based Ratehub is getting a fresh CEO.

Co-founders Alyssa Furtado and James Laird are reportedly passing the baton to Naga Parvatharaja. His last stint was as GM and Head of Lending at SoFi, a publicly traded U.S.-based "one-stop shop for digital financial services."

Parvatharaja inherits a business ripe with challenges but still brimming with potential.

Today's data dump was just what the rate doctor ordered.

Canadian GDP just came in softer than grandma’s couch cushions, and U.S. PCE inflation had its smallest rise of the year.

Anytime a regulator publicizes that it's concerned about "risks," it makes headlines faster than a political scandal.

Take the mortgage risks OSFI rattled off last week, for example. Predictably, every major media outlet from the Atlantic to Pacific parroted OSFI's doomy messaging like a broken record, no questions asked.

What a drag. Lack of balance is a recurring theme in regulatory communications. Canadians hear "risk, risk, risk" and get spoon-fed one side of the story with almost no context in sight.

Well, here's some context for Ottawa's narrative creators. And if they're honest with themselves and Canadians—they'll address it (in public).

Google recently pulled the curtain back on its newest brainchild, "AI Overview” (AIO) – previously known as SGE.

Despite its much-publicized blunders, AIO and rivals are poised to flip the table on mortgage search marketers. By Gartner's reckoning, AI search could nuke 25% of traditional organic search traffic by 2026 and 50% by 2028. That's hundreds of billions fewer clicks to third-party sites each year.

If you rely on search for your mortgage business and haven't done so, it's probably high time to start drafting an adaptation plan.

What is AI Overview?

AIO provides concise summaries for search queries instead of just throwing a list of links at you. For mortgage marketers, this means your website will soon be playing hide and seek with users. Effectively, Google is creating more distance between its standard search results and your website. Not good.

But AI also helps (some firms).

In the present landscape, Google mortgage results are dominated by companies that have perfected their SEO: Ratehub, Wowa, True North, big banks, etc. Going forward, no longer will appearing in position #1 mean what it used to. Soon, it'll be all about occupying position zero (0).

Let's dive into what that entails:

Starting August 1, first-time buyers eyeing new construction get a new trick to trim their payments: 30-year insured amortizations.

But this magic has a price. Bumping the standard 25-year amortization up to 30 years jacks up the default insurance premium by 75 bps—assuming a high-ratio mortgage.

On a 5% down mortgage, that's a hefty 18.75% increase versus the standard 4% premium. We're talking $750+ more per $100,000 borrowed.

Is it worth it? Let's break it down...

"Canada inflation is like cost of goat: very high. But now, it goes down like prices at Kazakhstan market. Very nice!! No need to sell my sister to buy bread! High five!"
—Borat Sagdiyev

From Kazakhstan to Bay Street, Canadian inflation forecasts just took a turn for the better, courtesy of April's CPI. Shelter aside, inflation came in like maple syrup in January: slow and sweet.

The good news arrived in bulk:

• Core measures inched just 0.14% higher m/m (solid disinflation)
• The BoC's closely-watched 3-month core measure was just 1.65%, well below the 2% target
• Average core has dropped every month this year
• Excluding mortgage interest—the dominant CPI driver:
  • average core inflation was a tame 1.6% y/y
  • headline's even lower at only 1.2% y/y!
• Rent and mortgage interest inflation slowed further
• Oil is well below last month's average (presaging an even kinder and gentler May CPI)
• Food inflation showed the steepest drop-off since August 2020.

In short, our dollar's stretching further (no fake news).

Here are the official annualized numbers:

• Headline inflation: 2.7% (est. 2.7% | prior 2.9%)
• Average core inflation: 2.75% (est. 2.8% | prior 3.05%)

Those with keen eyes will notice that this "prior" 3.05% core value is a revision. StatsCan raised it from the original 2.95% reported last month. But keep those party hats on; we're still headed in the right direction, down a whopping 30 bps m/m on average core.

June meeting: To cut or not to cut

Economists are bickering over whether the BoC should cut in June or July. The prudent choice, and in keeping with prior BoC guidance, would be July, says Scotiabank's Derek Holt.

Capital Economics says, "Despite the continued progress, the Bank of Canada may hold off on cutting interest rates in June, in order to confirm that lower core inflation will be sustained in the next two CPI releases ahead of the July meeting."

But Tiff & co. are starting to feel the heat from Bay Street to cut sooner and avoid economic harm. "By maintaining such a restrictive monetary policy, it risks inflicting unnecessary damage on the economy," said National Bank Economics today.

Both BMO and CIBC are also advocating for swift action, with CIBC asserting, "Today's data should have provided the all clear on the inflation front that the Bank of Canada needed to start cutting interest rates in June."

From our angle, given the facts that:

• policy is tighter than a Rouge coach seat, with the overnight rate now 225 bps above average core, the most since November 2007
• inflation has considerable downward momentum
• even StatsCan's talking about a "broad-based deceleration" in prices.
• CPIX (the measure the BoC forsake but shouldn't have) is back to 2021 pre-hike levels
• policy will remain tight for several months given the 12-18 month policy transmission delay...

...there's now enough cover for Tiff to take out the rate scissors.

Calendar guessing aside, imminent rate relief appears in the cards. Some of the spotlight will now shift to the post-cut trajectory. Based on past patterns, when rates are this high above the #neutral rate#, the BoC doesn’t stop at just one or two cuts.

In fact, it would be historically rare for the Bank not to slash rates 100+ bps in the next 12 months. The market concurs, implying a prime rate of 6.20% or less by this time next year.

Of course, the BoC will peek over the fence at next week’s U.S. core PCE inflation figures before making any decisions. If they come in hot, chances of the BoC deferring to July go up.

Market reaction

Canadian yields closed lower across the curve on Tuesday, including the fixed-leading #4-year swap# (above).

#OIS# traders are looking for two cuts, but this should move to three or more if we get a 25-bps trim in June and/or July, as expected.

Fixed mortgage rates have been edging lower industry-wide since last week. Given the light economic calendar, the odds are decent for further dips before month-end. We'll loop back with a fresh, forward rate outlook (including charts) upon receipt of data from CanDeal DNA.

It's pretty well known that seasonality impacts home values. But it's not always clear how much.

A recent online chat inspired us to update an old chart of price increases by month in the Canadian housing market. Here's what it revealed: