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This is not the pattern we like to see in Canada's 5-year bond.
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"Cup and handle" patterns like this tend to break out and follow through about two-thirds of the time.

If that happens here, it projects the yield rising to roughly 4.20%—calculated by flipping the "cup's" low point (~3.40%) above the breakout point. That still wouldn't be a new cycle high, but it's enough to kick fixed rates up by 25+ bps. It would also put our 5-year yield's 4.46% cycle high within reach.

Lord willing, and the creek don't rise, this time will mark the 1 in 3 times when this pattern fails. But one can't bet on it, which means mortgage shoppers can't take rate holds for granted.

For now, we're keeping our peepers on Middle East developments, and next week's retail sales and U.S. core PCE inflation, looking for a ray of sunshine.

Rates can't take many more positive economic headlines

One of Canada's top direct-to-consumer (DTC) mortgage providers is now officially open for business for M3 Group mortgage brokers — in all 10 provinces.

Boasting $11 billion of mortgages under administration, Nesto claims its recipe – a dash of competitive rates, a sprinkle of speed, and a heap of simplicity – is the secret to its sauce.

We caught up with the co-founders, CEO Malik Yacoubi and Principal Broker Chase Belair, to get the lowdown on whether their entrée's worth tasting. The short answer is, depending on the client's needs, nesto's rates at the time and the rates a broker has access to elsewhere, it may well be.

Here's a cheat sheet for all its broker benefits, rates and products...

It's a dark day for successful Canadian investors, seven-plus-figure entrepreneurs, and even mom-and-pops with their appreciated cottages.

Our friends in Ottawa are cranking up the capital gains tax to fuel their latest splurge—$39 billion in net new spending and $39 billion of red ink annually for the next two years.

Effective June 25, Uncle Justin will tax two-thirds of your capital gains versus one-half today. This starts at dollar one for corporations and trusts, but the new 2/3 inclusion rate applies only to capital appreciation over $250,000 for individuals. It's the first change to capital gains inclusion since dial-up internet was a thing, 23 years ago.
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Canada's rate market needed a win like this, and it got it. #Average core inflation# has delivered again. For the first time since the seemingly ancient days of mid-2021, it starts with a "2."

Today's welcomed report read as follows:

• Headline inflation: 2.9% y/y (est. 2.9%, prior 2.8%)
• Average core inflation: 2.95% (est. 3.1%, prior 3.15%)

This is what the Bank of Canada wanted last week when it said, "Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation..." And believe us, the BoC hasn't just been watching core—they've been holding their collective breath, and now, they can partially exhale.