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If you're waiting for lower mortgage rates, here's a number to remember: 0.89.

That's the correlation between Canadian and American inflation this millennium.

At a time when U.S. GDP and payrolls are trouncing estimates, that number matters. Economic strength flows over the border—and the U.S. economy isn't just strong, at 4.2% estimated growth, it's accelerating. And it's doing so with multi-decade lows in unemployment.

In the back of Central bankers' minds, there's a growing fear that America missed its soft landing...because the economy aborted a landing altogether.

For those wondering how much longer U.S. inflation can keep falling in such an expansionary environment, you're not alone.

For those wondering whether U.S. activity could make Canadian inflation stickier than gum on a shoe—you're not alone either.

Over 300 individual private lenders are reportedly caught up in the collapse of a would-be real estate empire.

The property portfolio totals hundreds of rental units, assembled partly by internet personality and self-promoted "successful investor," Dylan Suitor. More than $144 million of leverage was used. Much of that debt is now in jeopardy.

Something doesn't feel right about this CPI fight. It's like central banks are trying to put out the inflation fire as someone pours gasoline on it.

On the one hand, Fed chief Powell said on Wednesday that rate cuts are likely sometime "this year." He celebrated America's "six months of good inflation data" and confirmed the U.S. policy rate is "likely at its peak."

On the other hand, real-time U.S. GDP estimates have suddenly surged to 4.2%, over double the rate that's historically conducive to disinflation. And that strength—as long as it holds—will also keep Canadian inflation higher than it would be, despite Tiff Macklem's attempts to downplay this threat.

Add that to Canada's hot core inflation readings and the fact that Canadian GDP has been pacing at 3%+ annualized growth over the last two months.

No doubt, more borrowers are starting to wonder if the market's June rate cut timing is ambitious.

What do mortgage shoppers do about it?

Fixed-rate funding costs have barely budged for ten days. That's visible in the 4-year swap (below), the closest thing to a fortune teller when it comes to predicting near-term uninsured fixed-rate changes.

This week's got three data thrillers that could break us out of this range, however:

ICICI Bank Canada, a wholly-owned subsidiary of India's second-largest bank, has cut the cord with mortgage brokers.