While markets hoped for clarity on the U.S. jobs market, Tuesday’s unemployment and nonfarm payroll data continued to muddy the waters. U.S. retail sales and PMI were equally anemic, piling on the doubts about where the economy is headed next.

In periods dominated by uncertainty, bond yields customarily soften, and Tuesday confirmed this pattern once more.

Canadian CPI kicked off a heavy week of data deliveries with a modest downside surprise, as both headline and core measures landed below consensus.

Attention now turns to the final full trading week of 2025, as markets watch to see whether upcoming releases stay equally rate-positive.

Canada picked up a modest cost-of-living win today, at least by its official measure.

StatCan’s November CPI inflation slipped just below consensus, by a single tick.

Here's what we got:

• Headline: 2.22% (est. 2.3% | prior 2.2%)
• Average Core: 2.8% (est. 2.9% | prior 3% [revised up from 2.95%])

Bond markets slipped quietly into the weekend, with investors favouring restraint over bravado ahead of today’s inflation data.

Looking further out, with the BoC and Fed decisions largely digested, markets bet that the two central banks will now chart separate courses in 2026.

For some in our business, Canada’s Grey Wave is fueling a mortgage goldmine. In fact, reverse mortgages could be Canada’s hottest mortgage niche.

On a percentage basis, reverse mortgage growth is off the charts. And still, there are hundreds of billions in originations to come, says a man who knows, HomeEquity Bank SVP Rene Quercia.

That’s precisely why originators should invest serious time understanding this market, which is expanding six times faster than mortgages overall.

In MLN's latest edition of Stress Test This, Quercia explains:

• How large the market could realistically become
• How fast it's growing
• HomeEquity Bank’s response to Equitable Bank’s lowest-rate pledge
• The "greedy kids" factor
• How reverse mortgages are funded behind the scenes
• What Ontario Teacher's Pension Plan adds to the mix
• Fee competition, and more...

Fed rate watchers took notice of Thursday’s jobless claims data. The numbers reinforced the narrative of a U.S. labour market that may be losing some spring in its step.

Wednesday's Central Bank Fest went exactly as scripted:

1. The Bank of Canada froze its overnight rate at 2.25%.
2. The Fed injected another 25 bps of stimulus into the system.
3. Both central banks took a cautious stance on future moves.

With those formalities done, markets can finally obsess over what happens to rates next.

The BoC held the line on rates this morning, and nobody had to feign astonishment. Heading into the decision, overnight swaps were pricing a 94% chance of no move, leaving the remaining 6% for the people who still bet on lottery tickets.

"Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months," and "Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter," the Bank said in its official statement, adding that underlying inflation "is still around 2.5%."
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The BoC wrapped up its prepared remarks by stating, "The current policy rate is at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%."

The market's reaction