A mixed bag of economic data and trade headlines had yields in a slow drift lower on Friday. Here's what jostled rates and in which direction:
A mixed bag of economic data and trade headlines had yields in a slow drift lower on Friday.
Here's what jostled rates and in which direction:
Canada's economy sailed above expectations in the first quarter. The better-than-expected growth came with a big asterisk (it was driven by U.S. tariff front-running), but it was welcome nonetheless. * Headline GDP rose 2.2% annualized in Q1 (est. 1.7% | prior [Q4] 2.1%) * April GDP (advanced
Canada's economy sailed above expectations in the first quarter. The better-than-expected growth came with a big asterisk (it was driven by U.S. tariff front-running), but it was welcome nonetheless.
Here were the details:
Canadian mortgage rates aren't just moved by domestic inflation but by U.S. inflation too, especially by the Fed's favourite core PCE measure. On that note, today's April core PCE numbers hit the Street's target with the precision of a Swiss watchmaker:
Canadian mortgage rates aren't just moved by domestic inflation but by U.S. inflation too, especially by the Fed's favourite core PCE measure.
On that note, today's April core PCE numbers hit the Street's target with the precision of a Swiss watchmaker:
It's been getting harder for banks to make money, as evidenced by today's rare RBC profit miss. A big culprit is the evolving economic forecast, one which now reads "more dreary with a chance of defaults." That's leading banks like RBC to
It's been getting harder for banks to make money, as evidenced by today's rare RBC profit miss. A big culprit is the evolving economic forecast, one which now reads "more dreary with a chance of defaults." That's leading banks like RBC to stockpile larger-than-expected loan loss reserves.
Canada’s Big Six are also watching renewal waves hit like a fiscal tsunami, and most are strongly shoving customers toward multi-product relationships, something their #monoline# competitors can't really do.
Below, we unpack all this and more, highlighting each bank's Q2 mortgage reveals.
Bond yields did a quick jig upward after last night's court challenge of Trump tariffs (those tariffs were reinstated during appeal less than 24 hours later). Rates subsequently reversed course and headed south the moment Thursday's economic data hit the wire. Here's more on
Bond yields did a quick jig upward after last night's court challenge of Trump tariffs (those tariffs were reinstated during appeal less than 24 hours later).
Rates subsequently reversed course and headed south the moment Thursday's economic data hit the wire.
Here's more on what drove rates today, and in which direction:
Late Wednesday, a U.S. trade court ruled several of Trump's tariffs unconstitutional. At first glance, this looks like a win for Canada. The court slapped an injunction on most tariffs (more on that). However, the automotive, steel and aluminum duties survive, according to Capital Economics. Before the
Late Wednesday, a U.S. trade court ruled several of Trump's tariffs unconstitutional. At first glance, this looks like a win for Canada.
The court slapped an injunction on most tariffs (more on that). However, the automotive, steel and aluminum duties survive, according to Capital Economics.
Before the mortgage world starts celebrating, however, this development raises more questions than a philosophy exam, namely:
It was a quiet Wednesday where Canadian yields floated with broader market trends rather than specific domestic events. Here's what nudged rates, and in which direction:
It was a quiet Wednesday where Canadian yields floated with broader market trends rather than specific domestic events.
Here's what nudged rates, and in which direction:
Canada's mortgage market eagerly awaits the final verdict on whether regulators will replace the federal mortgage stress test (a.k.a., "MQR") with their new loan-to-income (LTI) test. On Tuesday, MLN got new intel on this from our banking gatekeepers. The regulator told us:
Canada's mortgage market eagerly awaits the final verdict on whether regulators will replace the federal mortgage stress test (a.k.a., "MQR") with their new loan-to-income (LTI) test. On Tuesday, MLN got new intel on this from our banking gatekeepers.
The regulator told us: