Canada’s economy took a bruising in August 2025, shrinking 0.3% instead of the Street's flatline (0%) estimate.

One could cite several culprits, but the main suspects are predictable: U.S. tariffs and a business confidence crisis.

Retail sales somehow managed to look chipper, however, climbing in two-thirds of sub-sectors. Canadians are still willing to shop through economic pain, at least until their credit runs out.

Preliminary September data (+0.1%) suggest only a meek rebound, leaving Q3 GDP tracking around +0.4% annualized. That's steady enough to avoid panic, not enough to celebrate, but at least consistent with the BoC's forecast.
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Yields gave back some of Wednesday's post-BoC spike on Thursday.

Yet, despite North America's suddenly hawkish central bankers, traders are still trying to figure out if this really is a potential cycle bottom. That's not an easy question with Canada's economy facing "structural damage" from tariffs, as BoC governor Macklem puts it.

The two biggest puppeteers of mortgage rates tugged on the same string Wednesday. The Bank of Canada and the Fed both conveyed hawkish vibes and chopped short-term lending rates a quarter-point.

Wednesday's rate savings will save a typical borrower anywhere from roughly $13 to $20 a month per $100,000 borrowed, depending on the loan type.

But the easing that everyone foresaw wasn't the biggest news. The real suspense is in what happens next.

The BoC just gave the economy another 25-basis-point energy shot. That means Canada's benchmark prime rate will now ease to 4.45%, effective tomorrow. It’ll mark the lowest prime rate since June 2022.
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Moreover, if leading variable rates track prime lower, they'll become the easiest qualifying option based on federal stress test rules.

Unfortunately for low-rate lovers, markets predict this will be the last cut for some time. OIS-implied odds for easing at the next (Dec. 10) rate meeting are just 10%, and only 35% for next year.

That comes after Macklem dropped this line this morning:

'Twas the night before rate decisions and all through the house, not a bond trader was stirring, not even their mouse.

In other words, the pre-decision calm on Tuesday was so absolute you could hear a bond coupon drop.

Leading up to today’s meetings, the real suspense hasn’t been about the cuts—25 beepers are already priced in. The question is what each central bank will say in its statements. Few are willing to bet big before these policy poets publish their verses, as just one unexpected adjective can erase weeks of expectations.

Markets appeared largely unfazed by Trump’s latest outburst targeting Canada, despite his new 10 per cent tariff hike. Perhaps it’s because most of the damage is already done. 

In an era where algorithms are gunning for back-office jobs, CMLS Financial’s Andrew Gilmour is strapping underwriters into "Iron Man suits" instead of replacing them.

In this 9-minute chat, the CMLS SVP breaks down how the lender’s AI engine, AMI, is changing the mortgage approval game — not by cutting people out, but by supercharging them.

But efficient lending isn't all circuits and silicon — it’s also about broker loyalty. Gilmour shares how CMLS’s new VIP program keeps brokers earning more long after the initial deal closes, how the marriage with Nesto is impacting the lender, and why he’s betting that brokers will still be a healthy slice of the mortgage pie for years to come.

Well that went sideways pretty quickly.

A few weeks ago, PM Carney was happily suggesting we'd see an interim trade deal with the Americans in a matter of “weeks.”

All of a sudden, Trump has scrapped the talks entirely, plus slapped another 10% tariff on Canadian imports for good measure.