It was a cautious day in the bond market, but trade vibes got suddenly more chipper.

Here's what moved Canada's 5-year yield, and in which direction:

For anyone picking a mortgage term based on market-projected forward rates and today's best offers *, floating looks about as appealing as a tax audit.

The implied upside (i.e., the probability of maximizing savings with a variable) is too limited.

As students of interest rates are aware, however, market-driven rate outlooks usually have an upward bias. For example, the chart below illustrates a typical pattern we often spot at this stage of the cycle.
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With U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day, Canada's 5-year bond yield charted an independent course on Monday.

Here's what moved our rates up and down to start the week.

Canadian yields felt the pull of global drama, even though retail sales decided to ignore the chaos and stay perky.

Here's what influenced the 5-year GoC rate on Friday, and in which direction.

OSFI Superintendent Peter Routledge hinted once again that Canada’s banking watchdog might fiddle with or outright ditch the mortgage stress test.

He argued that the newer loan-to-income (LTI) limit is better suited to its mandate, "which is to supervise financial institutions, not individual Canadians."

Much of the 58 bps burst in 5-year GoC yields since April 4 is "being driven by increasing term premiums," according to a new Desjardins report by rates strategist Royce Mendes.

Canadian yields inched lower today, largely because U.S. Treasury yields decided to lead the conga line off a mild cliff.

Here's a comprehensive breakdown of what moved government rates, and in which direction: