So far so good with the rate cut cycle. Everything's been going mostly according to plan after May (which usually indicates we're due for something unplanned).
Camerican price levels are slowly but surely disinflating, the labour market is easing, and Wall Street / Bay Street projects that GDP will dive in the back half of this year.
As usual, fortune-telling investors are pricing all this in well in advance. The more traders get confident that rate cuts will continue, the more the fixed-rate leading 4-year swap rate will inch towards the 2% range.
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