Forward rates are popular reference points that reflect the "smart money's" expectations for future interest rates. Who is the smart money? Think big institutional investors with deep pockets. For decades, investors have used forward rates to predict future rates. Despite the market's flaws, few

"The Fed pivot in December has triggered an easing in financial conditions which can no longer be ignored," says private equity giant Apollo Global Management. As a result, the firm sees no Fed rate cuts this year. It's a minority view, but Apollo's not

A sharp-minded MLN reader asked two important questions yesterday that deserve a broader response: #1. "With U.S. consumers fueling the economy through credit—and not feeling the effects of the rate hikes due to long mortgage terms—couldn't that potentially push rate cuts out in the

Two-year bond traders are going all-in on rate-cut bets. Exhibit A is the following chart. It shows Canada's 2-year yield, a leading indicator for BoC rates. It just made an 8-month low on Friday after failing to rebound above its 18-month average. To some, technical analysis might seem