Mortgage rates typically tumble in recessions. That's why most who pine for lower rates want to know if recession is immiment. The U.S. leading economic indicator (LEI) is just the latest clue of that imminence. Note how it's topped out before recessions — throughout most of

📰In case you missed it → Real Estate Still Grappling With Costly Rates We're all rooting for weaker inflation expectations, especially those who want lower mortgage rates. Among other ways, the Bank of Canada measures those expectations with its business and consumer surveys. And it puts considerable weight on

BMO Capital Markets published the chart below on Tuesday. It shows inflation over the last five years versus the 1970s. It's based on U.S. CPI data but Canadian inflation has almost a 90% correlation with American inflation.

No one alive has witnessed a rate move like we saw in 2022—not on a percentage basis anyway. Prime rate catapulted 163% in just ten months. The next closest move was in 1978 when rates surged 103%. 💡Context: We refer here to the percentage increase, not the percentage point