💡In brief: It could be a climactic week for rates on multiple levels (the Fed hike, employment reports, banking stresses, etc.). Borrowers needing financing through August should be prepared to lock rates quickly if bond yields spike, although that's not the expectation.
The Fed's likely and
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Fixed-mortgage funding costs eased this week—ever so slightly.
The impetus was two-fold:
1. continued blow-over of U.S. banking worries, and
2. more signs of disinflation (among other things, average core inflation slid from 4.8% to 4.5%, and preliminary March retail sales estimates looked grim).
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Central bankers are pushing back on 2023 rate cut expectations. And they're succeeding.
As of Friday's close, market expectations are now down to just a 4 in 10 chance of BoC easing this year, and only a single 25 bps rate cut at that. Following last
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It's no secret that average mortgage amounts surged in the last decade. The chart below illustrates that well.
But those rising balances hide an important fact, as noted in a recent report from RE/MAX.
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Institutional traders believe the Bank of Canada is approaching a cul-de-sac on rates. Overnight index swaps price in two full cuts by October and almost one more in December.
It wouldn't be the first time this year that markets made this "prediction," so to speak. The
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